MOSCOW, October 22. /TASS/. The prospects for peace and trilateral talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine following the October 21 St. Petersburg meeting; Moscow’s willingness to mediate between Tehran and Washington; and Russia’s potential agreement with the US to start shipping fertilizers alongside diesel. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Chances of peace and Russia-US-Ukraine talks following St. Petersburg meeting
US efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have resumed, perhaps the main visible and indisputable outcome of the October 21 talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg. The envoy left Russia with news of the release of an American citizen from a Russian prison and Moscow’s assurances that the proposals he brought would be reviewed. In addition, Putin expressed readiness to launch trilateral talks in the Russia-US-Ukraine format. The talks are scheduled for mid-November, after the US congressional elections, which are likely to bring significant changes.
Witkoff’s visit to St. Petersburg wrapped up a busy diplomatic round, international affairs expert Nikolay Novik told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The St. Petersburg talks were preceded by consultations in Oslo. Witkoff and Kushner, who participated remotely, met with Zelensky, European leaders, and EU and NATO representatives there, the expert recalled. “It is likely that Witkoff presented an updated plan to end the conflict and a proposal for direct talks involving Trump and Zelensky. There may also have been discussions about a meeting between Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping in China during the APEC summit on November 18-19: Washington doesn’t need a technical pause, but rather an outcome from the summit that can be presented as a tangible result,” Novik said.
At the same time, the package of conditions that the US envoy might have brought – if these were the ones recently mentioned in the Western media – does not suit Russia, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin told Vedomosti. According to the expert, Moscow agreed to discuss not so much the settlement itself as possible ways to establish a security framework for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends. “By 2027, we will most likely still be in the midst of ongoing hostilities, though the US administration had certainly hoped to achieve tangible results by the end of this year,” Trenin noted. The expert stressed that the future prospects of the negotiation process, including the development of specific terms, will be determined by the actual situation on the battlefield.
The current round of talks differs from previous ones because the agenda will include the issue of security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine, an issue that was not included in negotiations with Kiev following the Istanbul consultations, Nikolay Silayev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, said. However, the expert does not expect the upcoming negotiations with Ukraine to conclude any differently from the previous ones. “The main reason for the lack of confidence in a breakthrough is the public statements made by Ukrainian and European officials. Their position remains the same: an unconditional ceasefire,” he stressed.
Izvestia: Russia ready to mediate between Tehran and Washington
Moscow is prepared to act as a mediator in settling the conflict between the US and Iran, provided both parties are interested. Talks between Washington and Tehran have reached an impasse, partly due to the unresolved question of Iran’s nuclear program. Russia previously proposed transporting Iran’s enriched uranium to its territory, but this initiative has yet to receive support.
The eight-month conflict between the US and Iran has stalled. Washington’s initial plan to quickly topple the country’s government has failed. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult, and diplomats have yet to make progress toward resolving the conflict. Under these circumstances, Russia could assume the role of mediator. Moscow is ready to take such a step, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told Izvestia. “If all parties express interest, then we are ready [to act as mediators],” he noted. “We previously offered our services regarding how the Iranian nuclear program could be resolved, but our proposals have not yet been supported,” the senior diplomat said.
Thanks to its good relations with both Iran and Israel, Russia occupies a unique position as a universal intermediary in the Middle East, political analyst Alexander Kargin said. Moreover, Moscow is currently pursuing a negotiating track with the US as well. The expert noted that Pakistan, another potential mediator, has no diplomatic relations with Israel at all, whereas Russia does not face this problem.
Russian mediation would at least help establish a ceasefire, paving the way for a comprehensive resolution of the crisis, Kargin said. The analyst expects that, ultimately, the practical necessity of Moscow’s involvement will prevail, and the parties will bring Russia into the negotiations. At the same time, according to him, the parties to the conflict have diametrically opposed views on the nuclear program. While Russia’s proposal to remove the uranium would be ideal, heightened tensions in the Middle East are preventing the parties from making even the smallest compromises, Kargin stressed.
Izvestia: Russia may begin exporting fertilizers to US alongside diesel
Russia is ready to supply mineral fertilizers and fuel to the US, but expanding fertilizer exports would require a reallocation of shipments: currently, about 69% of fertilizer production is exported, experts said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed the prospect of supplying fertilizers to the US market on a significant scale. In addition, the first shipment of 40,000 metric tons of Russian diesel fuel is scheduled to leave for the US on October 22, with other countries set to receive shipments by the end of the year.
During a meeting with US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg on October 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow could supply fertilizers to the American market in large quantities. However, it is difficult to gauge potential export volumes, since a significant portion of Russian production is already under contract with foreign buyers, Denis Prikhodko, an equity market analyst at Alfa-Capital Asset Management, told Izvestia. According to him, shipments will increase gradually, primarily through the redistribution of export flows among foreign markets rather than through higher production.
Increasing fertilizer and diesel fuel shipments to the US market could help bring down prices for these products both in the US and globally, which is especially important for agricultural producers. Such agreements with Russia would benefit both the Donald Trump administration and the Russian authorities, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, stressed.
The European factor is also relevant. According to political scientist and German studies expert Yegor Belyachkov, the current leadership of most European countries will likely react negatively to an agreement between Russia and the US on fertilizer supplies, just as they did with the diesel deal. This approach directly reflects European countries’ policy in recent years, under which the slightest compromise between Moscow and Washington prompts EU nations to attempt to block such agreements. Brussels could do so by tightening sanctions against Russia and coordinating with American Democrats, the expert said.